Page 102 - IJPS-8-1

International Journal of
Population Studies Fertility by parity in China

Table 2. Decomposition of changes in cohort cumulative a rebounded second-birth TFR, the progression ratio from
fertility across cohorts first to second births declined. With the gradual removal of
the interval between births and the number of births in the
Cohort dPPR01 dPPR12 dPPR23 Changes in CCFR past decade or so, the second-birth fertility rate has seen an
1930–1950 0.09 −0.22 −2.04 −2.17 increase, especially after the implementation of the universal
1950–1970 0.00 −0.70 −0.48 −1.18 two-child policy in 2015, indicating a significant policy effect.
1970–1977 −0.01 −0.01 −0.03 −0.05 However, the decline in the second-birth fertility rate after
Sources: Authors’ own estimations from the 1990 census (1926 – 1950 cohorts) and 2017 shows that socioeconomic development and changes
the 2017 Fertility Survey (1958 – 1977 cohorts). in the childbearing values have become the main drivers of
contemporary second-birth fertility in China, not the fertility
The configurations of parity-specific fertility can vary policy.
greatly, even when summing up to similar cohort fertility A review of changes in the levels and patterns of second-
levels. Zeman et al. (2018) have categorized the different birth fertility in China since 1949 shows that traditional
configurations of parity progression ratios corresponding
to a completed cohort fertility of 1.6 children per fertility attitudes and low socioeconomic levels were
woman into “benchmark,” “high childlessness,” “one- responsible for high and widespread levels of second birth
child pattern,” “stopping at two,” and “polarized pattern” in the early years, while changes in fertility attitudes toward
(Table 3). Compared to these patterns, the combination modernity and rapid economic development have dominated
the recent low levels of second-birth fertility. Both the policy
of configuration of parity-specific fertility in China is of controlling the number and timing/spacing of second
markedly different. The results of the 2017 Fertility Survey child, which began in the 1980s, and the more recent policy
show that the fertility of women born in 1982 – 1983 is
around 1.62 children per woman, with the progression of gradually easing the number and timing/spacing of second
ratios to the first, second, and third births at levels of children have had an impact on the levels and patterns
of second-birth fertility. However, the impact of policy
around 0.95, 0.57, and 0.20, respectively. The “universal” relaxation in a low-fertility context has been less sustainable
nature of childbearing is evident in China with a than the earlier control policies that effectively contributed to
proportion of childlessness < 5%. The progression ratio the decline in fertility for birth order two.
to first birth is higher than that in any other low-fertility
developed country. Yet, progression ratios to second and The high second-birth fertility in the recent decade
third births are both low. That is, compared to low-fertility in China, both period and cohort, was more likely to be
developed countries, the progression ratio to first births associated with the universal progression ratio from 0 to
in China has a boosting effect on women’s cohort fertility, 1, while the progression ratio from first to second births
while the progression ratio to the second and third births was still low. We have good reasons to believe there will
has the opposite effect. China builds on a unique mode to be a continued delay of first births and even an increase in
those based on developed low-fertility societies. lifetime infertility rates which would lead to a decline in
the progression ratio to first births, while the short-term
4. Concluding remarks “accumulating” effect on second births due to recent policy
The fertility level and pattern in China have been shaped adjustments would quickly disappear. Until supportive
by fertility culture, socioeconomic development, as well as measures are in place and take effect, a decline in second-
fertility policy. The traditional Confucian culture of marriage birth fertility rate will be inevitable.
and fertility as well as low level of socioeconomic development The configuration of parity-specific fertility in China
in the 1950s and 1960s were the main reasons that fertility differs markedly from that in the west. The “universal”
level and pattern for the second births were characterized childbearing is evident in China, where the progression
by “early and universal”. The average age at second births ratio to first birth is higher than in any low-fertility
was around 25 years old and progression ratios from first to developed country. In contrast, progression ratios from
second birth remained stable at over 0.98. The “later, longer, first to second and from second to third in China are both
fewer” policy has negligible impact on progression ratios low since the 1990s. This is related to the internalization
from first to second births. Although there was a delay in the of long-standing strict fertility policies and rapid
average age of women at second births, the progression ratios socioeconomic development. As the younger birth cohorts
from first to second births remain almost unchanged. With are more likely to be influenced by individualism and their
the implementation and adjustment of strict restrictions fertility may become more diverse, the progression ratio to
on the parity and timing/spacing of second children in the first birth is likely to decrease, and it is too early to be seen
1980s, the second-birth fertility rate fluctuated. In contrast to to what extent the progression ratios from first to second

Volume 8 Issue 1 (2022) 96 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i1.348