Page 234 - AJWEP-22-6

Qin, et al.

A B

Figure 3. Evolution of FVC in different categories of the Yarkand River Basin. (A) Evolution of FVC in other
administrative regions. (B) Evolution of FVC in various land use types.
Abbreviation: FVC: Fractional vegetation cover.

to 0.56 in 2023. Bachu (slope = 0.0026, R = 0.835) and change in the counties and cities of the Yarkand River
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Makit (slope = 0.0023, R = 0.766) exhibited relatively Basin is shown in Table 5, with a highly significant
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slow growth but a high goodness-of-fit to the model. It increase (p<0.01) accounting for 72.55% of the total
is noteworthy that the Zepu region (R = 0.008) lacks area, a significant increase of 15.94%, and a decrease of
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statistical significance in its trend due to the high FVC only 8.32%, indicating an overall improvement in FVC.
levels (0.56–0.64) over a long period. Makit County had the highest percentage of highly
On the whole-area scale, FVC showed a stable upward significant increase (77.93%) and decrease of only
trend (slope = 0.0028, R = 0.706), which was consistent 5.67%, indicating the most significant improvement
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with the pattern of change in most counties and cities. in FVC. Yecheng County had a highly significant
However, the model fits of Shache (R = 0.399) and increase of 73.83% and a decrease of 4.67%, indicating
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Yecheng (R = 0.563) were relatively low, suggesting significant vegetation recovery. Tumushuke City and
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that several factors, such as agricultural expansion or Bachu County had an increase of 82.13% and 89.86%,
occasional natural disasters, may have interfered with respectively (decrease of 9.60% and 8.24%), with
the long-term change pattern of FVC in these regions. improvement dominating. Shache County experienced
Under different land use type classifications, a highly significant increase of 71.51% but a decrease
farmland FVC increased from 0.67 to 0.77, peaking of 19.41%, reflecting the coexistence of degradation
at 0.83 in 2010, reflecting the irrigation management and improvement, which may be influenced by human
effect; forest FVC increased steadily from 0.55 to 0.70, interference. Zephyr County experienced a highly
showing natural adaptation; grassland FVC increased significant increase of 47.35% and a highly significant
from 0.26 to 0.40, stabilizing after 2017, benefiting from decrease of 40.94%, indicating a balanced trend with
improved water resources; and bare land FVC increased both positive and negative outcomes.
from 0.03 to 0.06, with slow growth and limited The trend of FVC change in the Yarkand River
ecological restoration; other types FVC increased Basin showed significant differences among different
from 0.05 to 0.10, with a rapid increase after 2020, land use types, as shown in Table 6. Grassland and
probably related to land use adjustment. The period bare land accounted for 80.22% and 78.40% of the
from 2000 to 2010 was one of rapid growth, and from highly significant increase, indicating that the natural
2010 to 2023, the growth leveled off, suggesting that vegetation recovery was evident. Forest accounted
management measures were effective in the early years. for 58.80% of the highly significant increase, and the
The differences in land use types reflect the combined increase was superior, which may be due to the benefit
drive of artificial interventions and natural conditions, of ecological protection. Farmland accounted for
and the slow growth of bare land requires attention to 51.86% of the highly significant increase; however,
ecological vulnerability. the highly significant decrease of 34.28% indicated
From 2000 to 2023, the FVC trend (Sen+Mann–Kendall that management effectiveness and degradation
analysis) in the Yarkand River Basin showed significant coexist. Other types of significant increase accounted
regional differentiation (Figure 4). The degree of FVC for 85.93%, the decrease v was extremely low, and

Volume 22 Issue 6 (2025) 228 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025350269