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FVC and climate in Yarkand Basin

techniques, providing favorable conditions for ecological vulnerability of FVC at the local scale in the
vegetation growth. In addition, farmland protection Yarkand River Basin. The positive persistence in oasis
policies and land reclamation measures create a areas indicated that irrigated agriculture and ecological
conducive environment for the development of restoration measures (e.g., afforestation) support
vegetation. However, in mountainous areas, complex long-term FVC stability, while the anti-persistence in
terrain combined with harsh climatic conditions and desert areas reflected constraints from aridity and wind
surface exposure due to snowmelt restricts vegetation erosion, and mountainous areas were limited by terrain
growth potential. and precipitation, making FVC susceptible to short-term
The Hurst coefficients in the Yarkand River Basin disturbances (e.g., drought, floods). The Hurst coefficient
reflect the impact of spatial heterogeneity on vegetation of 0.81 for the annual mean FVC suggested long-term
dynamics. The positive persistence in oasis areas was stability of FVC at the regional scale, likely driven by
offset by the anti-persistence in desert and mountainous the dominant role of oasis areas and regional ecological
areas, resulting in a lower mean Hurst coefficient policies, such as afforestation, oasis expansion, and
across the entire grid. Desert areas, affected by extreme optimized water resource management. Climatic
aridity and wind erosion, experienced significant factors (e.g., precipitation fluctuation, temperature rise)
fluctuations in FVC with easily reversible trends, while and human activities (e.g., agricultural reclamation,
mountainous areas, constrained by terrain and climate, overgrazing) further exacerbate spatial heterogeneity,
exhibited unstable changes in FVC. These local-scale shaping the distinct FVC dynamics across different
anti-persistent trends, combined with the positive geomorphic units.
persistence in oasis areas, shaped the spatial distribution
of the Hurst coefficient across the region. The regional- 3.4. Analysis of drivers of FVC
scale positive persistence (H = 0.81) highlighted 3.4.1. Spatial distribution and interannual fluctuation
the stabilizing contribution of oasis agriculture and of climate factors
ecological protection measures to overall FVC. The multi-year average temperature data in counties
The mean Hurst coefficient for the entire grid and cities in the Yarkand River Basin showed obvious
(H = 0.44) underscored the spatial heterogeneity and spatial differentiation patterns (Figure 6). The spatial

A B

Figure 6. Spatial distribution of the average status of climate factors in the Yarkand River Basin from
2000 to 2023. (A) Spatial distribution of multi-annual mean temperature. (B) Spatial distribution of multi-
year precipitation.

Volume 22 Issue 6 (2025) 231 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025350269