Page 164 - GHES-2-2

Global Health Econ Sustain An analysis of national economic resilience

Table 1. Indicators in macroeconomic dimension
Indicators Description Data source
GDP Quarterly real GDP NBSC
GDP growth rate Quarterly real GDP growth rate NBSC
Contribution rates of The contribution rates of consumption, investment, and net exports to GDP growth refer to NBSC
consumption, investment and the respective shares of increases in final consumption expenditure, capital formation, and net
net export to GDP growth export in the overall growth of GDP.
Manufacturing PMI It is an index compiled through the statistical summary of the monthly survey results of CEI database
enterprise procurement managers. It covers all links of enterprise procurement, production, and
circulation. It is one of the leading indexes for monitoring macroeconomic trends in the world.
The weights of orders, production, employees, transportation, and inventory in this index are
30%, 25%, 20%, 15%, and 10%, respectively.
Non-manufacturing PMI Non-manufacturing PMI is not constructed into a composite index like manufacturing PMI, but CEI database
replaced by non-manufacturing business activity index, according to international practice. The
index is higher than 50%, representing the overall growth of non-manufacturing industry; an
index of less than 50% reflects a decline.
CSI The higher the CSI, the higher consumers’ satisfaction with current consumption. It is a CEI database
composite index built with many variables about consumers’ satisfaction, namely, commodity
value, commodity quality, consumer complaint behavior, and loyalty.
CCI The CCI reflects consumer confidence in spending, with a higher index indicating stronger CEI database
confidence. It is a composite measure that assesses consumers’ perceptions of the economic
environment, future prospects, income status, expectations, and psychological well-being, using
data from economist surveys to forecast economic and consumption trends.
ECI The ECI gauges economists’ confidence in economic growth, correlating a higher ECI with CEI database
greater optimism. This indicator captures economists’ assessments of current and future
economic conditions, income dynamics, and consumer sentiment through surveys, offering
forecasts on economic and consumption trends. Given economists’ typically accurate and
objective evaluations, the ECI serves as a reliable yardstick for gauging economic directions and
tendencies.
ESPI The ESPI is a composite index that reflects economists’ evaluation on the current economic CEI database
state and development trend, based on a questionnaire survey for economists. The higher the
ESPI, the more optimistic the economists feel about future economic development. In practice,
economists’ judgment on economic development is relatively accurate and objective. Therefore,
ESPI can reflect the situation and trend of economic development to some extent.
Notes: (1) NBSC is short for National Bureau of Statistics of China (http://www.stats.gov.cn/); (2) CEI is short for China Economic Information
database (https://db.cei.cn); and (3) the definitions of these indices are given in Table A1 (Appendix).
Abbreviations: GDP: Gross domestic product; PMI: Purchasing managers’ index; CSI: Consumer satisfaction index; CCI: Consumer confidence index;
ECI: Economist confidence index; ESPI: Economist spot prosperity index.

the third quarter. As mentioned in Section 3, Chinese central curtailed consumer spending and halted production
government not only adopted the strict closure measures across many businesses. In response, the Chinese
and urgent public health policies but also implemented government’s implementation of a loose monetary
active fiscal policies and easy monetary policies, which policy and extensive consumption subsidies triggered a
led to a sharp rebound in GDP growth in 2021. However, swift recovery in consumption’s GDP contribution. The
loose monetary policy may lead to high inflation. Thus, investment contribution to GDP experienced a more
the central bank tightened monetary policy after the first complex trajectory. Investment’s GDP share dropped from
quarter of 2021. Finally, the year-on-year growth rate of 43.00% in Q4 2019 to 20.80% in Q1 2020 due to business
GDP gradually fell back to the level before the epidemic. shutdowns and strict lockdowns, then surged to 154.60%
in Q2 2020 with the epidemic’s effective management,
The three primary components of GDP – consumption, proactive fiscal measures, and relaxed monetary policy,
investment, and net exports – exhibit distinct impacts before plummeting following monetary policy tightening.
on GDP growth (Figure 3). Initially, consumption’s Net exports’ GDP contribution progressively increased as
contribution to GDP sharply declined and then rebounded COVID-19 spread globally. This was due to Chinese firms
significantly. The early 2020 COVID-19 outbreak restarting operations amid effective domestic epidemic
and ensuing stringent lockdown measures drastically control, in contrast to production halts and acute medical

Volume 2 Issue 2 (2024) 6 https://doi.org/10.36922/ghes.1842